Economic impact. Over the past five years, the UK’s growth rate has slowed to around 1% a year, compared to 2%-2.5% before the Brexit vote. A lot of other factors have also been at play, but the stagnation in business investment and fall in foreign direct investment do appear to be direct consequences of Brexit.

Migration. Since Brexit, the UK has experienced a significant increase in net migration from around 250,000 people pre-Brexit to a high of about 900,000 people in 2023. This surge can be attributed to new visa arrangements and immigration on humanitarian grounds.

Trade and regulation. The UK has struck several trade deals since Brexit, but the economic benefits have been limited. However, the possibility of avoiding US tariffs targeting the EU, and the UK taking a more innovation-friendly approach to AI regulation, may be areas where Brexit can offer advantages.

Long-term consequences. It may still be too early for us to fully understand the long-term consequences of Brexit due to the significant challenge of isolating the vote’s impact from other major global events, such as Covid.